You are about 200 times less likely to be killed by a shark than by a defective toaster.

Teetotum, bayesian posteriors and chance

spinner posterior

The truth of the matter is that statistics is by no means blind, nor does it blind or deceive us, but it can in fact open our eyes.


A simple binomial p2(1-p)n-2 helps visualizing the distribution of the unknown frequency (p), from near zero to about 1/3. The mode is 1/15 (about 7%) and is not centered.

jumping dice paradox

Inspection paradox is very raw, but funny enough.

Jumping dice, expect the unexpected

Sources and references